GOLD GLD BULLS PAIN STRAIGHT AHEAD

GOLD bugs are jumping for joy at the thought of a major up move from here based on a world wide economic collapse. However, so far what we see is nothing more then typical market action, 5 bull up wave, ending with a parabolic move.

Our first projected target of 115 was derived by taking the pull back ratio of the inverted head n shoulders pattern and adding that amount to the break-out neck line.

Our ending price target area of 125-130 is obtained by adding the pull back points of the 4th wave to the break-out area of the 5th wave.

The GLD has moved in the 90-99 up, 180-189 2nd move up, and now will end with another 90-99 up.

This last 90-99 time frame will conclude begining the week of May 19th thru 31st, to complete the up cycle. Once we get a few days of distribution to confirm the pattern, we will begin shorting GLD via the DGZ.

SPY RETRACE

As noted over the weekend, we were approaching 15 calander days into the 1st down wave or a bull market pull back; unk which at the time. The expected support areas of 109, 105, 101 held, with the SPY hitting 105 on extreme high volume.

The standard retrace is 4-7 calander days, we are now on day 2. After the 4-7 day retrace period, we will then know for sure if we are in a bear market trend or this was just a fast bull correction. The absolute speed at which the correction and one day retrace took place, points to a bull market flush.

If we take the the length of the correction and add that to the neckline of the correction begining, we can project the next upside SPY target between 135 and 150

We are in cash pending the standard retrace, but lean towards the bull side of the trade as being the ultimate outcome.