Custom Search

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

ENERGEY ABOUT TO REACH TRUE TREND LINE MAY 15TH

Here is a chart of ETF-ERX-Energy 3X Bull:

We can see this is a multi year chart which a defined true uptrend line. Along the way, the energy sector has moved substantially above its mean trend, but in the end, always reverts back to trend.

With only a few dollars more to reach the trend, and an RSI reading that is NOT OVERSOLD as of yet; I question if this long term trend can be sustained.

Is this a large Head N Shoulder pattern that will put the energy complex into the poor house, the middle east looking to go to war, and a major sell signal for all risk assets??

I don't have the answer yet, but believe we are about to find out real soon.

Tim Kathlina

Friday, December 31, 2010

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Sunday, December 19, 2010

SPY FORECAST DEC 19.avi


Video explains market movement relationship to previous movements. Also provide trading update and forecast for 2011 and 2012.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

10 Year 2010 Retrace complete, time for pull back Dec 18th


Above we have a two year chart of the 10yr bond. The movement of the 10 year directly influences the S&P 500. Markets tend to move in same multiples of time and
distance.

As we see here, the 10yr has completed a 61% retrace of both the 2008 High to Low, and the 2010 High to Low. Each subsuqent Low to High was completed with a 38% retrace of that move. We can expect this pattern to continue, with a pull back to the 30 level, or 38% retrace of the 2010 Low to High.

Here on the SPY, we see the same repeated 38% retrace of Low to Highs over the last 2 years.

Should the pattern hold, we expect a pullback to the $115 area, or 38% retrace from current levels.

Keep in mind both the 10yr and S&P are in bear market up wedges within the larger 15 year secular Bear market that begin in the year 2000.

Despite the governments best efforts, then end results will be the same as the previous 120 year bull/bear cycles; a major decline of the indexes until the p/e ratio is below 10 and dividend rates are above 15%.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

SPY EMMINENT RALLY ON HAND



Markets repeat, always. Jan-Feb 45 calander days decline is now being repeated May-Jun 45 calander day decline. Result will be same, rally is at hand.


Both patterns are exactly the same, making new marginal lows just before taking off.

Get your longs ready to go!